A633.2.3.RB – Butterfly Effect
Complexity science (theory) is
different than chaos theory. Many
personnel who study this area tend to use the terms complexity and chaos
interchangeably however, there are two distinctly different concepts
(Obolensky, 2014). Where chaos theory
shows how a simple system exhibits complex behavior, complexity deals with
complex systems which tend to display certain emergent behaviors. Nobel Prize winner Murray Gell-Mann a particle
physicist defines a complex system as “neither
ordered or random, but combine both kinds of behavior in a very elusive but
striking manner”.
The butterfly effect in the world
of chaos and complexity is quite interesting.
Identified by Edward Lorenz in the 1960’s it is a simple theory in
definition however, it has massive impacts.
While performing a weather simulation on a machine he had developed he
noticed that as small deviations in the parameters of the simulation would change
it created massive differences later. He
came to the conclusion that “a very small change within a complex system can
produce very large difference to what would have otherwise happened.” In other words his discovery led scientist to
observe that when a situation has great sensitivity to an initial condition any
small changes to that can in turn have disproportionate effects. When I think of the butterfly effect I think
of the scene from the movie Jurassic Park (1993) where Jeff Goldblum’s
character is explaining the theory to another character. He explains it by saying that chaos theory
and the butterfly effect is when a butterfly flaps its wings in Peking and then
you get rain in Central Park. Are these
two things related? Who knows, but this
theory is a pretty good representation of how small changes can have massive
effects.
Within my current organization I
have experience things which could be summarized by this effect. The Unites States Air Force is a very complex
organization with many moving parts and pieces.
Within this organization there have been several things which have
changed both big and small over the course of 17 years. One such change which in essences seemed
small but ended up having massive ramifications was when the USAF decided to
make it mandatory for personnel who fail a physical fitness test to receive a
referral performance report. While this
is not a massive concept to visualize, if you fail to meet a standard it should
reflect on your performance report. The
long run effects of this simple concept were massive. While failing your fitness test is obviously
undesirable it should not be the end of your career. However, once a person receives a referral
performance report several other things happen.
Depending on how long this person has been in they may be denied
reenlistment, will not be able to change stations, are not eligible for
promotion, if they have been selected for promotion they will lose their
selection, and could face other disciplinary and administrative actions. Simply adding this one requirement for mandatory
referral reports cost many personnel within the USAF many different actions and
many of them were discharged due to this.
After a few years the USAF went back and changed this from a mandatory
requirement and made it the commander’s discretion.
Another small change within my
organization which yielded large results was the move to all paperless
system. While constantly printing out
regulations and publications is expensive there are several benefits to this
process. By moving everything to digital
it has created problems with the availability of these products. As any person who has ever done anything with
a computer or electronics knows they are not always reliable. However, when it comes time to go do a job
and you need the required publications and regulations and they are not
available due to the system being down or the internet not working properly it
really hampers things. In the USAF if an
aircraft maintainer goes out to perform a task without the required guidance
there are several issues that can arise.
For one if the maintainer does not perform the task correctly there
could be catastrophic consequences. The
person could perform the task incorrectly thus leading to injuries or aircraft
damage. This could lead to delays in
take offs and in complete mission failure.
If this happens during a high priority mission or a rescue mission this
could have second and third line affects which would be greatly
detrimental. While I understand the cost
consciences approach to doing business I feel there are better ways the USAF
can try to save than by cutting out paper regulations and other important
guidance.
Change is an inevitable part of
life. Whether it is at work or at home
there will be things that change. Whether
the change is big or small it will affect how you operate in your current
situation. The butterfly effect is a
theory developed by Edward Lorenz in the 1960’s (Obolensky, 2014). His idea was based on a meteorological simulator
he had developed. During his experiment
he noticed that as the parameters of the simulation changed minutely there was
vast differences in the outcomes. The idea
that a small change in any application that can warrant large outcomes became
known as the butterfly effect. This name
was based on a paper Lorenz wrote titled “Predictability – Does the Flap of a
Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?” As a current United States Air Force
personnel I have experienced several changes during my 17 year career. Some have been large changes and some have
been small changes. I believe I have
seen first-hand the concept of butterfly effect with the examples listed. What seems to be small changes such as one
line in a regulation and paperless regulations yielded large and undesired
outcomes down the road. The essence of
Lorenz’s butterfly effect.
Obolensky, N. (2014). Complex
Adaptive Leadership Embracing Paradox and Uncertainty. New
York, NY. Taylor & Francis
Group.
Kennedy, K. & Molen, G. (producers) & Spielberg, S.
(Director). (1993). Jurassic Park (Motion
Picture). United States. Universal
Pictures.
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